Analysis: DOT's Russian Overflight Ban On China To Have Limited Short-Term Impact

The U.S. Transportation Department’s (DOT) proposal to bar Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace on U.S. routes could have longer-term consequences for the transpacific market—but the immediate operational impact is likely to be limited.

The Oct. 9 order, issued by the Trump administration, seeks to prohibit seven Chinese carriers from flying over Russia on passenger services to and from the U.S. The move aims to “level [a] competitive disparity” that has existed since 2022, when Moscow closed its skies to U.S. and most Western carriers in retaliation for sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine.

While the proposal underscores Washington’s effort to eliminate imbalances in U.S.-China aviation, analysis of recent flight paths suggests that only a handful of Chinese services currently use Russian airspace on U.S. routes. As a result, the measure’s short-term effects on operations are expected to be modest.

FlightRadar24 data indicates that only four of the 18 nonstop U.S.-China routes currently operated by Chinese airlines—China Eastern’s New York JFK-Shanghai Pudong, China Southern’s Guangzhou-New York JFK, and Air China’s Beijing Capital-Los Angeles and Los Angeles-Shenzhen services—have entered Russian airspace over the past week. Other routes pass south of the far eastern edge of Russian territory, below the Kamchatka Peninsula. The operational impact of the DOT’s proposal would therefore likely only grow if Chinese carriers revived longer East Coast routes.

The planned restriction comes amid a slow rebuilding of U.S.-China air services. In February 2024, the DOT approved an increase in Chinese carriers’ weekly round trips to the U.S. from 35 to 50, matching the number permitted for U.S. airlines. The change marked a modest step toward restoring market access that remains far below pre-pandemic levels, when each side operated more than 150 weekly flights.

U.S. airlines have previously urged the government not to grant Chinese carriers additional flight rights unless they agreed to avoid Russian airspace, arguing that access to those routes gives Chinese operators a significant cost and time advantage.

OAG Schedules Analyser data for the week of Oct. 6, 2025, shows U.S. carriers are operating 27,762 two-way U.S.-China seats, compared with 31,420 by Chinese airlines—a combined total of about 59,000 weekly seats. That total is less than one-third of the 196,000 weekly seats recorded at the same point in 2019.

The number of airport pairs has also fallen sharply, from 46 in 2019 to 21 today. City pairs such as Boston-Shanghai, Chengdu-Chicago and Chongqing-New York have yet to return since the pandemic.

The current capacity split slightly favors Chinese carriers, which now hold 53% of the market, compared with 47% for their U.S. counterparts. United Airlines leads all carriers with a 23.5% market share, followed by Delta Air Lines (16.7%), Air China (16%), China Eastern (12.8%) and China Southern (12.2%). American Airlines ranks sixth with 6.7%.