Delta Reports No ‘Material’ Effect From Shutdown, 9 Days In

Delta Air Lines says it has yet to see a material effect from the early days of a U.S. government shutdown. 

“We are monitoring potential impacts,” said president Glen Hauenstein during a third quarter earnings call on Oct. 9. The prior government shutdown, which lasted for 35 days before ending in late January 2019, was expected to cost the carrier roughly $25 million in revenue that month. The numbers this time around have, so far, not reached the same threshold.

“It was about a million dollars a day previously,” he said of the last shutdown’s financial toll.

The current government funding lapse hits right at the start of the fourth quarter, after Congress failed to agree on appropriations legislation, causing agencies to cease non-essential activity Oct. 1. Federal employees are set to receive a partial paycheck near the midpoint of the month—their final until the shutdown ends.

Encouraged by continued strong demand momentum, Delta remains optimistic for the near-term. Over the past six weeks Delta has watched sales accelerate across all geographies and in every advance purchase window, Hauenstein told analysts.

“Today, there’s no cause for concern—I would say that if this doesn’t get resolved, say, beyond another 10 days or so, you probably will start to see some impacts,” said Ed Bastian during an appearance on CNBC. “Remember, no one’s lost a paycheck yet.”

Delta reported record revenues for the September quarter, and expects to drive 60% of the overall industry profits. Its results were led by premium, corporate and loyalty, and year-over-year comparisons benefitted from lapping the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage. Still observing a rising preference for premium products and services, Delta continues investing in that direction. 

“We think that premium still has a long runway,” Hauenstein said on the call. Next year “most of our growth, if not almost all of it, will be in the premium sectors,” he said, confirming that premium sales could overtake the main cabin as soon as next year. Delta had previously guided for that milestone in 2027.

Though transatlantic results disappointed in the second and third quarters, Delta expects to see significant improvement in the fourth, on firmer main cabin trends and stronger corporate travel. In 2026 the carrier intends to be more aggressive in filling main cabins earlier in the booking curve and plans to have a better distribution of capacity to account for shifting seasonal peaks.

Overall, it expects to enter next year on a position of strength.

“I think we’re going to head into [the first quarter] the same way we’re exiting [the fourth quarter], which is with a very strong backdrop,” said Hauenstein. “The quarter we know the most about is the quarter we’re in, and the quarter we know the least about is the fourth quarter of next year. As the first quarter comes into focus, the demand is looking quite robust.”

For the third quarter, Delta reported total operating revenue of $16.7 billion, up 6% year-over-year, on a 5% increase in operating expenses. Its net income for the three-month period rose 11% to $1.4 billion. Main cabin ticket revenues fell 4% year-over-year to $6.1 billion, while premium grew 9% to $5.8 billion. Overall passenger revenue ticked up by 3%. Remuneration from its co-brand card grew 12% to $2 billion in the third quarter, driven by double-digit spend growth. Delta believes it is on track to achieve $10 billion in remuneration within the next few years. In 2025 it expects total remuneration of over $8 billion.

Encouraged by current momentum, sales trends and industry dynamics, the carrier is guiding for fourth quarter revenue growth of 2-4% year-over-year, expecting its operating margin to range between 10.5%-12%. In the final three months of the year, earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be $1.60-$1.90. For the full year 2025 Delta expects EPS of approximately $6 and free cash flow of between $3.5-$4 billion.

“Financial divergence across the industry has never been greater,” observed Hauenstein. “As carriers prioritize earnings, their cost of capital, and eliminate unprofitable flying, competitive capacity in our hubs is down year-over-year, and we expect a very healthy supply-demand balance across the industry into 2026 … I'm very optimistic as we enter the final quarter.”