Ryanair Targets Incentive-Friendly Markets Amid Capacity Constraints

Ryanair is taking a more “judicious” approach to network expansion, focusing on frequency growth and improved aircraft utilization as it continues to manage ongoing Boeing delivery delays.

Speaking on the airline’s full-year earnings call on May 19, Ryanair DAC CEO Eddie Wilson said the strategy reflects a shift away from aggressive market entry in favor of boosting performance on established routes.

“We’re being much more picky about where we allocate capacity,” Wilson said. “There has been a bias toward increasing frequencies, as opposed to launching new routes where you've got to do a lot of investment in lower fares.”

“We’ve also picked up some extra efficiencies, particularly as we launched the winter schedule this year, where we're flying less on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and slightly more on Thursdays.”

After opening five new bases and launching more than 200 new routes in summer 2024, Ryanair plans around 160 new routes this summer. However, Wilson said the 2025 summer schedule targets countries and regions that are incentivizing growth—citing Italy, Hungary and Sweden—and sees Ryanair pulling back in destinations that are imposing new taxes, like Denmark.

The carrier closed its two-aircraft base in Danish town Billund at the end of March and has reduced capacity from Denmark this summer by about 37%, compared with summer 2024, according to analysis of OAG Schedules Analyser data.

“There’s less new routes, more frequency building and a lot more analysis on how we allocate capacity,” Wilson added.

Ryanair carried a record 200.2 million passengers in fiscal year 2025 and aims to grow that by 3% to 206 million in the 12 months to March 31, 2026, despite ongoing Boeing delivery delays. The airline expects to receive the final 29 aircraft from its order of 210 737 MAX 8s in the autumn in time for the summer 2026 season. Wilson said it has “pretty much” finalized where it will deploy additional aircraft next summer, although a “small number” are still to be allocated.

Despite fleet limitations, forward bookings for summer 2025 are ahead of last year, and pricing is strong. Ryanair expects fares in the first quarter of its current financial year to finish a “mid-high teen” percentage ahead year-on-year, aided by full Easter holidays falling in April and resolution of prior online travel agency disruptions.

The second quarter (Q2) is also shaping up favorably, Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary said. “Q2 pricing looks like it’s up by 4% to 5%—we’re not going to get back the 7% decline we had in Q2 last year, but we’ll get back a significant proportion,” he added.