Boeing Confirms No 777-9 Deliveries Until At Least 2027

Boeing has confirmed that it will need at least all of 2026 to complete the 777-9’s FAA type certification program, pushing projected first deliveries of the long-delayed widebody into 2027.

CEO Kelly Ortberg outlined the revised timeline and related $4.9 billion charge, which he signaled were coming in comments made at a September investor conference, on the company’s third quarter earnings call Oct. 29. As was the case in September, Ortberg emphasized that the outstanding issues are linked to process, not the aircraft’s performance.

“There are no new issues with the airplane itself or the engines [or] the test program,” Ortberg said. “Ironically ... the maturity of this airplane is probably higher than any other airplane we’ve been through the test program. The issue is solely around getting the certification work complete.”

The holdup continues to be satisfying the FAA’s requirements for expanding the 777-9’s official test program under Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) and, more broadly, evolving certification requirements. Approval for the new widebody is being sought via a phased TIA, which breaks the required certification tests into batches. Boeing must demonstrate through its own testing and analysis that the aircraft meets regulatory requirements before the FAA will greenlight the related batch of tests which, in many cases, involve the agency’s test pilots.

“We’ve taken a step back,” Ortberg said. “We very much underestimated how much work it was going to take for us to get the TIA approvals and for the FAA to have the opportunity to review all the data submissions that are required.”

Boeing was granted authority to begin TIA in mid-2024 and is currently in the latter stages of TIA Phase 2. Its previous plan, which envisioned first deliveries in 2026, saw TIA Phase 3 starting “in the third quarter” of this year, CFO Jay Malave said on the call. “However, this authorization has been delayed as Boeing and the FAA work through the supporting analysis,” he said. Boeing now sees the next TIA phase starting late this year or in early 2026, he added.

The revised and still uncertain timeline means customers at the front of the delivery line must adjust their network plans. Lufthansa’s recently announced move to schedule its 777-9 debut in the 2027 summer schedule foreshadowed Boeing’s ongoing challenges.

The new schedule also means a slower production ramp-up—and likely more headaches—for suppliers.

“We just have to flow the new, revised schedule out to our suppliers, and then we’re going to have to negotiate on a case-by-case basis the impact that has to the various suppliers,” Ortberg said when asked about the supply-chain ramifications. “Depending on the commodity, the impact might be significant or might be fairly insignificant. So, we’re going to have to work through that.”

Ortberg offered marginally more encouraging news on the remaining 737 MAX variants undergoing certification. Boeing has finalized a new engine anti-ice system design, paving the way for planned certification of both the 737-7 and 737-10 next year.

“We’ve got to make modifications to the test aircraft, and they’re both hardware and software modifications, and then we go through the certification of those steps with the FAA,” Ortberg said. “It’s pretty straightforward, and the anti-ice is still the critical path for both certifications.”

The 737-7 and 737-10 will have multiple updates compared to their in-service predecessors, the 737-8 and 737-9.

Some, such as the 737-10’s extended landing gear, were in the variant’s original design.

Others, notably the enhanced angle of attack (eAOA) data system, stem from regulatory review of the baseline design following two fatal accidents in 2018 and 2019. Once the new variants are approved, safety-related changes, including the new engine anti-ice design and the eAOA, will be retrofitted to the in-service fleet.

“If you take the engine anti-ice out of it, there is still work to be done to complete the certification, probably a little more work on the -10 than the -7,” Ortberg said, adding that the hurdles are “not near the magnitude of what we’re experiencing with the [777-9] program. We think it’s pretty straightforward to get through this certification of the [anti-ice] design. We’ve got a lot of test data; a lot of analysis that will help us move quickly through that ... We’re still planning on getting that done here in 2026.”

Production Ramp-Up Progress

While Boeing’s commercial certification efforts continue to face headwinds, production is a different story. The 737 MAX line is flowing at 42 aircraft per month, Ortberg confirmed, just weeks after the FAA granted Boeing permission to push past 38 per month following a review of the company’s production.

Monthly rollouts may not total 42 given holidays and other production-related nuances, but the 737 production lines are “loading now at the 42 rate, [and] I’m planning that we will exit the year very soundly at the 42 a month rate,” Ortberg added.

The 787 is transitioning from seven per month to eight following a similar FAA review of the company’s North Charleston, South Carolina, production operations.

“We should be at eight by the end of the year, and then we’ll move to 10 next year,” Ortberg said.

The move into double-digits will be tested by supply chain constraints, “particularly seats,” Ortberg said. “We’re continuing to struggle with seat certifications. I think that’s going to be with us for a little bit longer. We are making progress on that, but I think seats will continue to be a constraining item for us, and then just the general supply chain on 787, because we don’t have the buffer.”

The 737 ramp is being aided by a backlog of parts that built up during 2024’s reduced production rates and the late-year strike that halted all Seattle-area final assembly activity for nearly three months.

Boeing’s positive production updates come on the heels of expanded authority to inspect and approve 737s and 787 before delivery. The moves underscore the FAA’s increasing confidence in the manufacturer following years of safety and quality missteps that prompted a top-to-bottom production review and action plan in early 2024.  The review and related plan came in response to January 2024’s Alaska Airlines 737-9 door plug inflight blowout linked to systemic internal and supply-chain quality deficiencies.