Analysis: Europe-Middle East Leads Intercontinental Capacity Growth

Air service between Western Europe and the Middle East is set to expand sharply this winter, led by the planned restoration of flights to Israel and network growth by both Gulf and European carriers.

According to an analysis of OAG Schedules Analyser, total two-way seat capacity between the two regions will reach 41 million during the winter 2025-26 season, up 14.7% year over year from 35.8 million seats last winter. The increase makes it the largest intercontinental growth market worldwide in absolute seat terms, reflecting sustained demand for both point-to-point and connecting traffic, as well as renewed hopes in regional stability.

A major driver of this surge is the scheduled return of capacity to Israel, as airlines rebuild networks following service suspensions during the war in Gaza. Compared with winter 2024-25, many Western Europe-Israel markets are posting double-digit growth: Italy-Israel capacity is scheduled to be up 76%; France-Israel 66.6%; Greece-Israel 39.6%; Germany-Israel 73.4%; and the UK-Israel 62%, OAG Schedules Analyser data shows.

Almost 196,000 additional seats are available between Rome Fiumicino and Tel Aviv this winter compared with winter 2024-25, while capacity from Frankfurt is up 132%, London Heathrow increases 86% and Paris Charles de Gaulle expands 40%, as European carriers restore frequencies and redeploy aircraft to Israel.

New and returning routes include KLM’s daily Amsterdam-Tel Aviv service using Boeing 737-900s, and Scandinavian Airlines’ (SAS) return to Israel after a decade with 2X-weekly Airbus A320neo flights from Copenhagen, starting Oct. 26.

Wizz Air will also add services from Naples and Venice, beginning Oct. 28 and Dec. 1 respectively, both operated by Airbus A321neos, while Transavia France is introducing a 2X-weekly Marseilles-Tel Aviv route from Oct. 28 using 737-800s.

Overall, Western Europe-Israel capacity is scheduled to reach 4.9 million two-way seats this winter, up from about 3.2 million a year earlier but still below the 5.5 million recorded in winter 2019-20, before the pandemic and the Hamas conflict.

Elsewhere, Emirates, Etihad Airways, and Turkish Airlines are driving much of the broader Western Europe-Middle East growth, each adding more than 450,000 seats compared with last winter.

Etihad plans a 17.3% capacity increase, Emirates 5.1%, and Turkish Airlines 15.6%. Other airlines significantly increasing capacity in the market include Lufthansa, up 365,700 seats year over year; AJet, up 358,800; Pegasus Airlines, up 279,500; and Eurowings, up 260,000.

Service additions include Eurowings’ routes from Stuttgart to Jeddah and Amman; the resumption of Lufthansa flights between Munich and Riyadh; and Austrian’s restart of service to Dubai after a 10-year hiatus.

The airport pairs seeing the largest increases in capacity for winter 2025-26 include Dubai-London Heathrow (+145,000 seats), Doha-London Heathrow (+143,000), and Dubai-Milan Malpensa (+115,000).