Bayesian Took Less Than 15 Seconds to Heel Irrecoverably

The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has released its interim report on the foundering of the Bayesian, saying the yacht may have been vulnerable to high winds and that such winds may have been evident at the time of the accident.

On 19 August 2024, the UK registered large sailing yacht Bayesian foundered in high winds 0.5 nautical miles south-east of the port of Porticello, Italy. There were 12 guests and 10 crew on board at the time the vessel sank. Six of the guests and one crew member died.

The report recounts events onboard, including:

“As the skipper prepared to manoeuvre Bayesian up into the wind from their position on the flying bridge, the wind suddenly increased to more than 70kts. The awning over the flying bridge ripped from port to starboard. At 0406, Bayesian violently heeled over to 90° to starboard, taking less than 15 seconds to do so. People, furniture, and loose items fell across the deck. The generators shut down immediately and battery-supplied emergency lighting came on.

“The skipper, G4, the owner, the bosun and S2 were all injured, either by falling or from things falling on them. DH2 had been thrown into the sea from their position by the helm on the flying bridge. In their cabin, G1 and G2 used the furniture drawers as an improvised ladder to exit the space, escaping along the internal walls of the central alleyway and climbing out into the saloon area. S1 and DH1 climbed up the walls of the forward staircase, exiting from the crew mess area into the wheelhouse. There was no indication of flooding inside Bayesian until water came in over the starboard rails and, within seconds, entered the internal spaces down the stairwells.

“The C/E managed to exit through the port forward wheelhouse door. Once clear, they helped DH1 out before heading aft to launch an Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRB), one of two on board, from its position on the port aft quarter of the main deck. DH1 stayed by the port forward wheelhouse door and, reaching down through the open doorway, lifted both S1 and then S2 onto the upper deck. Looking down through the door, DH1 could not see anyone else so the three of them made their way aft and into the sea.

“Separately, the C/O had found the owner and pushed them through the cascading water up to the skipper on the flying bridge. The C/O and skipper managed to evacuate G3 and G5 by the same route.

“The bosun and DH2 climbed down into the wheelhouse and lifted G1 and G2 into the flying bridge where they were joined by G4, assisted by the C/O and skipper. With Bayesian rotating to starboard and sinking, the CS, bosun and DH2 found themselves in an air pocket by the closed port forward wheelhouse door. With the assistance of the injured G4 on the outside, they were able to open the door and escape. The C/O, who had been swept to the back of the saloon and into another air pocket, dived down to open the sliding doors at the aft end of the saloon and managed to swim clear of the vessel. The skipper organised the abandonment from the flying bridge and instructed the guests and crew present there to swim clear of the mast and boom as the vessel was sinking.”

Andrew Moll, Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, said: “The interim report presents a desktop study of the facts as we know them. The study has reviewed the yacht’s stability, the likely local weather conditions at the time, and the effect of that weather on the yacht. The findings indicate that the extreme wind experienced by Bayesian was sufficient to knock the yacht over. Further, once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70° the situation was irrecoverable.”