Global warming could change waves at half of world’s coast

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, is part of the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project, ten research organisations, which analyze different global wave models in several future climate scenarios, to find out how waves might change in the future.

The project has identified some differences between different models, and the discovered that if the 2 degrees Paris agreement target is met, changes in wave patterns coukd stay inside natural climate variability.

However, if global warming continues, the planet is likely to face important changes in wave conditions, with these changes varying by region.

Some areas will see the height of waves remain the same, but their wavelength or frequency will alter. This can lead to changes in the force that the coast experiences and any infrastructure there. What is more, in some cases this can cause increased wave-driven flooding.

Changes to the direction of waves can also change how much sand they move along the coast. Namely, infrastructure built on the coast, or offshore, is sensitive to these different characteristics of waves.

NOC scientist Professor Judith Wolf, a co-author of the study, stated:

"It is important to understand changes in the wave climate under climate change scenarios because waves are what cause damage to coastal defences and infrastructure, and erosion of natural coasts, beaches and ecosystems. They also contribute to increasing flood levels through wave setup, run-up and overtopping"

The pattern that is discovered from this research is that changes in wave heights are expected in some areas, with increases in the Southern Ocean and the tropical eastern Pacific, but reductions in the North Atlantic Ocean and portions of the northern Pacific Ocean.