Analysis: U.S. Airlines Ramp Up For Record Thanksgiving

U.S. airlines are gearing up for the busiest Thanksgiving travel period since 2010, with more than 360,000 flights scheduled between Nov. 24 and Dec. 2 and peak operations expected on Nov. 25, at more than 52,000 flights.

The FAA says it is ready for the surge following weeks of operational adjustments linked to air traffic controller staffing shortages.

OAG Schedules Analyser data shows U.S. domestic capacity for the week of Nov. 24 will total 20.33 million seats—up from 20.08 million in the same week last year and well above the 18.3 million seats flown during Thanksgiving week in 2019.

Southwest Airlines leads with 21.7% of domestic seats, followed by American Airlines (21.1%), Delta Air Lines (18.7%), United Airlines (16.4%) and Alaska Airlines (5.1%). Spirit Airlines’ share has fallen from 4.3% last year to 2.6% as the ULCC continues to scale back its schedule as it works through another restructuring.

Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson will be the largest airport by seats this week with 1.01 million domestic outbound seats, ahead of Denver (883,351), Dallas/Fort Worth (800,376), Chicago O’Hare (793,658) and Phoenix (615,039). In terms of departures, Chicago O’Hare leads with 7,053 domestic departure flights, outpacing Atlanta’s 6,434.

The busiest domestic route will be Los Angeles-Chicago O’Hare with 56,265 two-way seats, followed by Honolulu-Kahului and Denver-Los Angeles.

The Thanksgiving buildup follows a volatile period for the National Airspace System. Government officials last week allowed airlines to add flights back into schedules after reducing required systemwide cuts.

The reductions were imposed after air traffic controller “staffing-trigger” events spiked during the 43-day government shutdown. The decision to end the order followed safety team evaluations of systemwide performance and “a steady decline in staffing-trigger events,” according to the agencies.

Staffing-trigger events—unscheduled controller absences forcing traffic cuts—peaked at 81 on Nov. 8 but have since fallen sharply, hitting six on Nov. 14, eight on Nov. 15 and only one on Nov. 16, returning to pre-shutdown levels.