Driverless trucks could match conventional trucking costs by 2028, states Kearney report
Driverless trucks could cost about the same to run as conventional trucks in the U.S. by 2028, according to a new Kearney report.
Driverless trucks could cost about the same to run as conventional trucks in the U.S. by 2028, according to a new Kearney report. The study, conducted in collaboration with the MIT Mobility Initiative, puts the crossover at roughly $2.60 per mile. Slower growth in driverless fleets could push that date to 2032.
Kearney estimates that driverless trucks cost about $4 per mile to run in 2026, compared with about $2.50 for conventional trucks. The report projects that driverless costs will fall as developers spread software development costs across more trucks, sensors get cheaper, and each remote operator can oversee more vehicles.
The forecast assumes both types of trucks travel about 185,000 miles a year, with two drivers needed to cover that distance in a conventional truck. Kearney’s model assumes the autonomous fleet grows to 40,000 trucks by 2035. If the fleet reaches only 10,000 by then, the report says it could take four more years for costs to meet.
The researchers interviewed more than 25 people across the trucking industry, including fleet operators and truck manufacturers. The report projects that costs will be met around 2030 in Europe and 2032 in the Middle East, where driver pay is lower.
