Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer is forecasting10,550 new aircraft deliveries in the 30- to 150-seat segment over the next 20 years, valued at $600 billion.
Embraer released the updated global forecast during a briefing at the Farnborough Air Show on July 15.
Today, there are 9,000 aircraft below 150 seats in operation, but Embraer said this figure is set to increase to 16,000 aircraft, with 65% of the new deliveries being used for growth, while the remaining 35% will be replacements.
Of the 10,550 new aircraft needed, 4,660 (45%) will have fewer than 100 seats, while the remaining 5,890 (55%) will carry 100 to 150 passengers.
Asia Pacific will lead demand, taking 28% of the 10,550 aircraft. Europe and North America will each take a 27% share, with Latin America accounting for a further 11%. Africa and the Middle East make up the remaining 7% of the anticipated demand.
These figures are based on 4.5% anticipated annual RPK growth and 3% annual fleet growth.
“All this gives us a very good outlook for this segment for the next 20 years,” Embraer Commercial Aircraft VP-marketing Rodrigo Silva e Souza said.
Embraer Commercial Aviation president & CEO John Slattery said efficiency and sustainability are driving demand, as the industry warms up for the next period of higher costs and yield pressure.
“The economic performance of the airline industry will mostly depend on how far costs will rise and to what extent the industry can sustain a healthy revenue environment. Aircraft in the up to 150-seat segment are the best placed to combine cost efficiency with stronger yields,” Embraer said.