New Aviation Week Forecast Projects Record Engine MRO Growth
Preliminary outlooks from the Aviation Week Network’s upcoming 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast reveal that the global fleet is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 3% in 2026-35. After more than 21,000 new aircraft deliveries, retirements and freighter conversions, Aviation Week’s 10-year outlook of the air transport industry shows that active in-service commercial aircraft will grow to 45,000 units by the end of 2035 from a little more than 34,600 in 2026. Aftermarket MRO requirements will grow to more than $1.6 trillion during this time.
Preliminary outlooks from the Aviation Week Network’s upcoming 2026 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast reveal that the global fleet is expected to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 3% in 2026-35. After more than 21,000 new aircraft deliveries, retirements and freighter conversions, Aviation Week’s 10-year outlook of the air transport industry shows that active in-service commercial aircraft will grow to 45,000 units by the end of 2035 from a little more than 34,600 in 2026. Aftermarket MRO requirements will grow to more than $1.6 trillion during this time.
North America’s share of the world’s fleet is expected to decrease to 23% in 2035 from 28% in 2026. Meanwhile, India’s fleet share is forecast to increase the most, rising to 6% of the fleet in 2035 from 3% in 2026, reaching more than 2,500 units.
The global narrowbody fleet is projected to experience the largest increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, while the widebody segment is forecast to grow by a 2.4% CAGR. Narrowbody types are likely to expand their dominance over this period, growing to 70% of the fleet in 2035 from 60% in 2026.
The landscape of commercial engines is forecast to transform as next-generation technology platforms begin flying. By 2030, CFM International Leap engines are projected to overtake the presence of CFM56s in the air and continue to expand their lead as more come into service while the older types are gradually replaced. The Leap family, powering Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s, is projected to expand at a rate of 13% CAGR, while the competing Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan powerplant used on Airbus A320, A220 and Embraer ERJ aircraft is expected to grow at a 10% CAGR.
MRO requirements are forecast to increase in step—aftermarket MRO at a 3.2% CAGR, totaling $1.6 trillion during the same 10-year period (without inflation). The share of engine maintenance compared with overall MRO demand is projected to rise to a new high, and the MRO share for engines is forecast to reach 53% after growing faster than other MRO categories.
Unscheduled narrowbody engine OEM upgrades to address time-on-wing durability issues for new entrants are expected to continue in 2026 and 2027, causing demand estimated at $5.1 billion.
India and the Middle East are forecast to stand out for above-average growth in regional MRO demand, showing CAGRs of 12% and 5%, respectively.
